NHL backup goaltenders are some of the most beloved players on hockey teams when it comes to hockey fans in hockey markets.
The starter plays often, he never leaves the ice, fans tend to get tired of them and find themselves rooting for the unheralded backup.
In Calgary this season, starter Mike Smith has become this season’s biggest lightning rod of discontent due to his poor play, weak goals, and big contract.
A change of expectations for Mike Smith to a backup goaltender would likely alleviate some of the anger, but where does he line up when it comes to backups across the league? Is the move from #1 to #2 enough of an expectation change to save his image?
The Flames
It doesn’t take forensic work to determine the starter from the back up in Calgary. Rittich is the man, Smith has stumbled and is now the backup, but what is the actual impact differential between the two?
Looking at the Flames shots per game against and their expected team save percentage, the Calgary Flames should surrender 225 goals this season. With David Rittich in net for all 82 games they’d give up 205, and with Smith in net that number would jump to 270.
But we already knew that Rittich was better than Smith, how does Smith lineup against other backups?
Methodology
As dispassionate as possible, I simply ranked all the NHL goaltenders by minutes and then made adjustments to cases were starters have had poor starts or injuries that have effected minutes played and the hierarchy in the city.
Then each backup is placed in a table of 31 stoppers and ranked in terms of dSV% (differential between expected and actual save percentage), Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), and straight up save percentage.
dSV%
The average backup goaltender has a dSV% of -0.38, meaning they have a save percentage that is 0.38 points worse than the average NHL goaltender, given their body of work and quality of shots against.
| Rank | Player | Total |
| 1 | LAURENT.BROSSOIT | 2.62 |
| 2 | PHEONIX.COPLEY | 1.80 |
| 3 | JAROSLAV.HALAK | 1.58 |
| 4 | THOMAS.GREISS | 1.40 |
| 5 | RYAN.MILLER | 1.37 |
The best in the league are behaving like starters, at least in terms of quality of start (not frequency), and out performing their marks in helping their clubs secure points on nights when the starter gets a night off.
The worst five backups based on dSV%?
| Rank | Player | Total |
| 1 | MIKE.MCKENNA | -2.84 |
| 2 | ANTTI.NIEMI | -2.56 |
| 3 | CHAD.JOHNSON | -2.35 |
| 4 | MIKE.SMITH | -1.95 |
| 5 | JONATHAN.BERNIER | -1.87 |
Mike Smith, as a backup is the fourth worst option in the National Hockey League, giving up two full percentage points in his save percentage when compared to his calculated rate based on what the Flame’s give up.
Interesting to point out, only 11 backup goaltenders have positive dSV% numbers, or in laymen terms only 11 of the 31 NHL backup goaltenders have managed to play better than how the average NHL goaltender would perform based on the types of shots their teams give up.
Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA)
How many more (or less) goals would a particular goalie save compared to the NHL’s average goaltender.
This isn’t a percentage, it’s an actual count of goals prevented, and really outlines where the rubber hits the road.
Top five backup goaltenders in terms of GSAA;
| Rank | Player | Total |
| 1 | JAROSLAV.HALAK | 11.43 |
| 2 | LAURENT.BROSSOIT | 9.89 |
| 3 | THOMAS.GREISS | 9.31 |
| 4 | PHEONIX.COPLEY | 8.15 |
| 5 | CURTIS.MCELHINNEY | 6.67 |
These guys have made a huge impact on their team’s seasons. Some expected names like Halak on the list, but also some surprises like Brossoit and the steady play of McElhinney.
The bottom five?
| Rank | Player | Total |
| 1 | MIKE.SMITH | -11.29 |
| 2 | JONATHAN.BERNIER | -10.87 |
| 3 | ANTTI.NIEMI | -10.35 |
| 4 | MIKE.MCKENNA | -8.99 |
| 5 | ANDERS.NILSSON | -8.07 |
Not a good sign for Calgary, as Smith sits dead last for backups and 2nd last overall behind Jake Allen for most damage done to his hockey team.
That won’t keep the wolves at bay.
Save Percentage
The old fashioned one we all know and love, where do backup goalies rank in terms of save percentage?
Top five backups;
| Rank | Player | Total |
| 1 | LAURENT.BROSSOIT | 93.90 |
| 2 | JACK.CAMPBELL | 92.97 |
| 3 | JAROSLAV.HALAK | 92.39 |
| 4 | ANTON.KHUDOBIN | 92.32 |
| 5 | RYAN.MILLER | 92.18 |
Once again great season for Brossoit, and stunning to wonder how things could be worse in L.A., but it appears that backup Jack Campbell is the least of their worries.
And the bottom five?
| Rank | Player | Total |
| 1 | MIKE.SMITH | 88.58 |
| 2 | ANTTI.NIEMI | 88.61 |
| 3 | CHAD.JOHNSON | 88.81 |
| 4 | CAM.WARD | 88.94 |
| 5 | AARON.DELL | 89.06 |
Once again Mike Smith at dead last, with a similar story coming out of San Jose with the division rival struggling with their backup Aaron Dell.
The average NHL backup has a .906 save percentage; using the Flames shot rates against that would suggest the average backup playing all 82 games in Calgary would surrender 222 goals, 49 goals less than Mike Smith would surrender if he played all 82 games.
Goalie Slot Differential
What NHL team has the biggest gap in talent between starter and backup?
| Rank | Team | 1 | 2 | GSAA Diff |
| 1 | ANA | 24.71 | 4.02 | 20.69 |
| 2 | CGY | 6.12 | -11.29 | 17.41 |
| 3 | DET | 3.91 | -10.87 | 14.78 |
| 4 | TOR | 8.69 | -4.84 | 13.53 |
| 5 | VAN | 3.44 | -8.07 | 11.51 |
The team with the most to lose on nights that they go with their backup goaltender? The Anaheim Ducks. What’s interesting about this case is the fact that you can’t hang this on Ryan Miller, the backup. He’s one of the most effective backup goaltenders on the circuit with a +4.02 GSAA. It’s just that Jon Gibson has been so lights out ahead of the pack for stoppers that the absence of him in the net is a big sag based on his numbers.
Number two? Calgary Flames with David Rittich having a +17.43 mark over his backup Mike Smith.
The caveat on this however is the fact that I’ve switched the two in roles from what the opening roster suggestion would be, and haven’t done the same in Edmonton (Talbot off year), Jersey (Kinkaid killing it) and Boston where the starter is up in the air.
This can be seen at the bottom of the list where the differentials for some NHL teams are negative (backup is better).
| Rank | Team | 1 | 2 | GSAA Diff |
| 31 | EDM | -11.12 | -0.58 | -10.54 |
| 30 | CAR | -3.03 | 6.67 | -9.7 |
| 29 | WPG | 0.47 | 9.89 | -9.42 |
| 28 | L.A | -3.94 | 4.38 | -8.32 |
| 27 | BOS | 5.6 | 11.43 | -5.83 |
The Flames would be first on this list without the swap, but similar stories are playing out in Edmonton and Carolina, and to a lesser extent Winnipeg where Connor Hellebuyck is having a bit of a downturn year.
Summing It Up
Statistics are interesting.
Sometimes you set out to prove or look into a subject, but then come away with a completely different take on things. In this case I had notion that Mike Smith compared only to backup goaltenders would show somewhat more positively, taking away some of the ire that follows the stopper with every start.
Instead it was the opposite.
As the worst or second worst backup option in the league he’s a dangerous player to put between the pipes.
Hopefully his slow recovery gets him closer to the middle of the pack by season’s end.
