Sometimes too much can be made of splits.
We heard ad naseum about how the Flames couldn’t win in Anaheim, it was an odd nuance, nothing more in the broad scheme of things.
This season the Oilers are ranked number one on the road in the penalty kill, but are so dreadful at home killing penalties that the club is ranked 31st when you look at all their games when down a man, as they’re literally giving up a goal 50% of the time at the new rink sinking their overall rate.
The Flames are road warriors but terrible on home ice, the story of the week and I guess the season.
But how do the underlying numbers look?
Shot Metrics and Possession
The Flames are actually playing considerably better on home ice than on the road when it comes to simple shot metrics.
The team has taken 53% of the shots at the Dome compared to 47% on the road.
They have 55% of shot attempts at home compared to 49% on the road.
They have 57% of the scoring chances compared to 48% away from Calgary.
All three metrics suggest they are carrying the play and deserve better at home and likely less in their road results.
These numbers are more consistent when you look at score adjusted values with shots at 52/50, shot attempts 53/52 and scoring chances 55/53, which certainly points to how they’ve had the lead on the road much more often.
Special Teams
Here is where you see a huge difference.
Many have called for Dave Cameron’s head, but the powerplay has actually been excellent on the road compared to home ice, something almost as puzzling as the debacle in Edmonton with their penalty killing.
Calgary’s powerplay away from Calgary has been humming along at a productive 22.7%, compared to the home version which is an inept 14.3%. The Flames have scored five more powerplay goals away from home on nine less chances.
On the penalty kill side the Flames are at 82.1% on the road and only 78.6% on home ice, giving up 15 goals on each, but with 14 more short handed situations wearing white jerseys.
Special team splits seem to be a factor.
Lady Luck
If a team is getting out played and out chanced on home ice, it would only make sense to see them out scored.
As we see above, that just isn’t the case.
Yet the Flames have a shooting percentage of 9.2% on the road compared to 8.0% at home, and the save percentage splits are similar with Smith and Co. having a 93.1% save percentage away from Calgary compared to a 90.3% rate on home ice.
The league average shooting percentage is 9.1% and the league average save percentage is 90.9%.
The Flames are basically league average shooters away from home and the sorriest bunch of ham hands you can imagine at the Dome.
Mike Smith is a wall away from Calgary, but just average on home ice.
Lets dig a little deeper.
In terms of converting on shot attempts we can break them into regular and high danger and then apply shooting percentages to these shot attempts. The average NHL team converts 14% of high dangers chances into goals, and only 2.8% of non high danger shot attempts into celebrations.
The Flames are converting high danger chances at a rate of 12.4% on home ice compared to 11.4% on the road both below league average; our first big surprise as they are more adept at converting on home ice. This is meaningful as well since they have a greater split of the high danger chances on home ice. This should have meant more wins.
The other side goes the other way as the opposition has converted high danger chances in the Saddledome at a 15.6% rate, which is 1.6% above the NHL average, but well below on the road as they give up a goal only 11.5% of the time.
In terms of inconsequential shot attempts, not deemed to be a scoring chance the Flames score at 2.1% of the time (below league average) at home, and just above the average at 3.1% on the road.
Mike Smith (nobody else has played all that much at home) gives up goals at 3.1% of the time when faced with a shot attempt that isn’t a scoring chance (above league average), but is stingy at 1.8% on the road.
The Flames are getting better looks at home ice, and giving up less, but the shooters and the goaltender aren’t as effective in red.
Sometimes a story can become a story because it is written. The seed is planted and the reality becomes the story as it gets in a player’s head.
Don’t over think this; its luck.
