Thirty one games into a National Hockey League season and the Flames are out of a playoff position, sitting tied for 9th in the West, just short of a wild card position.
So why, then, does it feel like this team is about to go on a streak and grab hold of their season?
Recent times show the Flames running along at a 4-4-2 record in their last ten, so it’s not recent play that has the spidey sense feeling good things, though points in their last four with unbelievable travel is certainly a good sign.
On the ice the team has flipped things up side down somewhat. The top line has gone ice cold, but the third line has found their way and are chipping in almost nightly. On the blueline the second pairing of TJ Brodie and Travis Hamonic seem to have figured it out and have posted some of their best results of the season of late.
The team just “feels” better.
But what do the underlying numbers say?
Analytics seems to roll out from an obvious to less obvious way, the table above follows the order.
“The Flames can’t score goals, no talent”
The Flames are a bottom third team as they sit roughly 20th in goals for and 17th or so defensively. They are the very definition of average, and with that don’t show a lot of promise as to turning their season around and moving up the standings.
If this is the depth of your analysis you go away feeling pretty glum about the season overall. They are good offensively on home ice, but poor defensively. On the road they are great defensively, but putrid when it comes to putting the puck in the net.
“But the Flames almost always out shoot their opponents!”
Ok but what about shots on goal, does that improve your opinion at all?
Why yes it does! The Flames are a top ten team when putting pucks on net, and an average team when it comes to preventing them. Overall this is good news right? They are due to score more goals because they are out shooting the opposition!
Sitting roughly 10th in the league in shot share, the Flames are lights out on home ice, but below average on the road. That has changed somewhat recently.
So yeah if you like shots on goal, the Flames are a juggernaut about to break out!
“So the Flames are unlucky?”
In a word, yes.
Especially on home ice where the team has a 8-8-0 record on the season.
“Luck” in analytical terms is the addition of a club’s save percentage and their shooting percentage forming their PDO. Five on five the Flames have the league’s 27th best shooting percentage, and 22nd ranked save percentage.
This is somewhat ironic given the myriad of media comments about the Flames MVP being Mike Smith and how he’s saved their season. Early on he was solid, and on the road he’s certainly been a huge factor, but on home ice the Flames have the 29th ranked save percentage this season, a fact that is certainly hurting their overall results.
Overall the Flames efficiency stats suggest they have below average goaltender and a roster devoid of players with offensive talent that can score. Does that sound like the Flames?
“Fine, that’s good but shots have never been a good indicator of possession, do the Flames drive the play?”
Here’s where some hockey fans have their eyes go glassy and they begin to fidget, but the Flames have elite level corsi stats behind them (all shot attempts; be it a goal, a save, a shot wide, or a blocked shot). Generally having good shot metrics means you have the puck more often than not and is a pretty decent precursor for success.
The Flames are 5th overall, likely 3rd on home ice and roughly 11th on the road in shot attempt share, which puts them firmly in the top 5 or so clubs in the NHL.
If you want to hang your hat on a statistic that suggest the Flames are going to get better, this is the one. Teams that have the puck more often than not tend to migrate towards the top of the standings with a few exceptions, the 2014-15 Flames being one of them.
“OK, so they’re unlucky and they drive the play, but a team that shoots from the perimeter won’t have a high shooting percentage”
Not so fast on that one either, the Flames are an elite team when it comes to generating scoring chances. They sit top ten in chances for, and top five when it comes to the differential between scoring chances for and against, suggesting that not only are they driving play, they are out chancing their opponents pretty regularly.
To me this is where the optimism sits.
A team that out shoots, out possesses and out chances an opponent will, should the metrics hold, have their luck turn and with it a string of wins.
“But what if they suck? What if they can’t finish?”
This is where you have to put your hands up in the air and say “maybe”.
There is no underlying statistic that can confirm or deny the possibility a team can out play another team, get more blue chip chances to score but not have the skilled players to finish these plays.
I for one have always though it more difficult to generate a blue chip chance than to finish one, so I wouldn’t conform to that view, but I certainly can’t deny it’s possible.
When it comes to high danger scoring chances the Flames have the 30th best shooting percentage, and the 17th best save percentage.
To put the goal scoring in perspective, the Flames have the largest deficit between rank in chance generation and chance execution in the NHL at -17; that is they rank 6th in chance generating but 23rd in chance execution. Is that likely to last? I would guess no.
All in all I’d expect the Flames, should they continue to do the same things on the ice, start to reel off some wins at a pretty consistent rate in the coming weeks. All teams have ups and down, and the Flames will have their skids to go along with streaks. But when it comes to how they are playing and the results, the Flames are due for a course correction upwards.
Merry Christmas!
