It’s very difficult using the past to extrapolate the future; a statement that’s true in almost everything, but even more so a trade deadline in the National Hockey League.
Every year is different in terms of standings, where a club sits, and their appetite for either buying or selling. But additional variables also complicate things including the number of teams willing to transact, the value of the upcoming draft and the implications on the worth of a draft pick.
In Calgary, the GM currently occupying the chair, Brad Treliving, is also relatively new to the position, so any gazes to the past would only reveal two deadlines with this being his third.
Two weeks ago it was pretty much common knowledge that the Flames needed an upgrade on the bottom half of their defense core, an additional top nine forward, and a boost to their goaltending wouldn’t hurt as well. The Flames were a solid bubble team, but with games in hand against them they were hardly a good bet to load up at the deadline.
Add to that the existing GMs recent past of selling even if they’re in the mix and it was hard to imagine any massive additions heading to Calgary on the 1st of March.
Now, however, much has changed.
Assets & The Shopping List
Just like last season when Treliving jumped early making a deal with the Vancouver Canucks, trading tweener Markus Grandlund out West for prospect Hunter Shinkaruk, the Flames may have already made their big move and filled their biggest need.
Last week in acquiring Michael Stone for a third and a conditional fifth, Treliving caused a ripple effect in the bottom half of his defense core. Stone, along with late season signee Matt Bartkowski, have been inserted in the place of veteran Dennis Wideman and middling Jyrki Jokipakka, giving the Flames what looks like their most dependable group of six all season.
Four games is hardly a season, but with only one game to go to the deadline, the hole appears to be plugged suggesting the need for further tinkering on the back end would be a) unnecessary and potentially b) dangerous if a change halted the growing chemistry that seems to be at work.
Up front the Flames have an additional chemistry surge that they will need to assign a go forward probability to in that of Micheal Ferland’s insertion on the club’s number one line. It’s been tried before, in fact Ferland has lined up with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau earlier in the season, but has also had spins with Monahan and Troy Brouwer, Sam Bennett and Kris Versteeg as well as Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik; all to minimal returns.
This time however it appears to be different, as Ferland is playing as if he’s lined up with Lance Bouma and Matt Stajan instead of Monahan and Gaudreau, and it’s working. His focus on north/south hockey and doing the little things right has transformed the Monahan line into the closest thing we’ve seen like chemistry since Jiri Hudler broke the crank shaft in his engine.
Do you mess with that?
Between the pipes the soon to be UFA tandem of Bryan Elliott and Chad Johnson seem to have stabilized things somewhat, with both coming of good starts however I think it important not to over play the results in the standings. The chart below shows the tandem’s rolling 5 game save percentage through the season charted against the current NHL average save percentage of .9095. As you can see the big Chad Johnson roll from mid November to mid December was elite goaltending, but other than that the duo have provided less than average goaltending through the campaign. The recent surge has more to do with limiting chances, and finding their scoring touch than a hot goaltender carrying the mail.
There is something to be said for a timely save though, and Bryan Elliott has certainly been effective in that manner of late, providing some last line of defense as the Flames put some road wins to bed.
Could the Flames have missed an opportunity to jump into the Ben Bishop transaction given the Kings gave up so little? A prospect that many have as about 10th on the King’s list which would equate to Tyler Wotherspoon from Calgarypuck’s rankings, a 4th and a conditional pick for a goaltender that could upgrade the Flames right now plus audition for next season doesn’t seem that steep depending on the conditions. However Bishop really hasn’t had an “on” year himself, suggesting that move could be lateral at best.
If you see acquisitions for teams that look to be playoff bound to meet certain hurdles than I can see why Treliving chose to stand pat in goal. So along those lines the Flames should just stand down if they don’t see a winger that can send one of Brouwer or Ferland to the fourth line, or a defenseman that won’t supplant Bartkowski from the starting six.
On the sales side the Flames have two UFA goaltenders (Johnson and Elliott), two UFA defensemen in Dennis Wideman and Derryk Engelland (a third in Laddy Smid of course), and UFA forwards Kris Versteeg and Brandon Bollig that they could move. I chose not to include Michael Stone as he’s pretty unlikely to be moved.
The club would love to move Wideman or Bollig, but that could be a tough chore. They’d need to be blown away to move either of Kris Versteeg or Derryk Engelland.
So what does this come down to?
A hot club that has really come together of late is a dangerous one to tamper with. Teams appreciate a sign of faith by bringing in help, but I a feeling this group has a general “keep the gang together” mantra over the “get us some help!” feeling of some clubs.
So what will Treliving do?
What I like about the Flames these days is the fact that we just don’t know. I can guess. Bob McKenzie can guess. The guys on Sportsnet 960 can guess, but nobody ever sees a Treliving move coming. So all we can go on is his work ethic driving him to be in conversations on many fronts and the possibility he could do something quite surprising, but also the probability that he won’t do nothing. When you’re in many things you’re probably likely to get one done.
His penchant for acquiring picks in recent deadlines suggests he’ll do the same this time around, but maybe to a lesser extend as he doesn’t have the chips to move to acquire 2nds. However there’s nothing wrong with trimming some AHL fat for 4ths and 5ths to be used at the draft to move up.
My gut tells me there’s more though, the guy always gets in there and surprises the league, and with the expansion draft looming and the Flames having some flexibility on the protection list the potential for more certainly is out there.
Only two more sleeps, then we can close the door on roster changes and gear up for a stretch drive. With the Flames gaining ground on the Oilers and Ducks one has to start thinking more aggressively about Western Conference standings, especially with the Ducks having the Conference’s most difficult schedule to close out the season. Treliving may want to think about a first round matchup with the Oilers when he makes his final tinkering moves in the next two days.
Now that would make for a fun Spring.
