Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 28th – 2 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
The Oilers fall, and they take the Leafs with them. So not perfect with Vancouver sticking around, but at least Oiler fans got the opposite of what they’re used to. Or maybe they got exactly what they are used to on the ice for once, an epic loss. I get that Arizona is a divisional team, but I don’t mind the feel good story of them landing Matthews.
The Bad:
Vancouver again. Again. The Canucks in the third seed for lottery chances have out performed the Oilers at two, and are nearing the Leafs at one in my iterations of the simulation. To me that means I’ve run their luck out and they won’t be a factor on Saturday. Of course the opposite of that is the Oilers will be better, so lets not go there. Calgary sliding down to 7 is brutal, hopefully the Oilers taking a defenseman gives them some options.
Simulation Rating:
Good for bouncing the Oilers, bad for sliding to seven, and bad for having the Canucks get a Finn … going with 3.
The Picks:
1. Arizona – Matthews
2. Buffalo – Laine
3. Vancouver – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Dubois
5. Edmonton- Chychrun
6. Columbus – Tkachuk
7. Calgary – Nylander
Flames Pick:
Sometimes you have to go with the hand you’re dealt. The Flames were looking obviously for a lottery pick, and without that one of Dubois or Tkachuck, but at seven the best player available is Nylander Jr, son of former Flame Michael Nylander who came over from Hartford in the Gary Suter trade. Skilled and gifted, just lacks a little of the physical side missing in the Flames top six. However the best player available is the best player available and the Flames certainly drafted talent on this day.
Through 18 simulations the Flames have won a lottery pick 5 times for 28%, just above the suggested odds. They’ve selected Tkachuk 6 times, Dubois 4 times and Laine and Matthews twice each. Eight different players have been selected by the Flames. They have yet to draft 4th (can’t), 5th (their starting position) or 8th (their worst case position). They land in the 6-7 range 72% of the time.
Simulation Summary (18 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 4.9
Poll Average 5.2/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
Day 13 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.7/10
Day 14 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.3/10
Day 15 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 8.9/10
Day 16 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 17 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.2/10
