Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 23rd – 7 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
Is there any bad? Calgary gets the first overall pick and complete control of the top of the draft. Edmonton and Vancouver, Calgary’s biggest rivals get shut out, and you can add Toronto, Montreal and Winnipeg to that list as well. Just to put a cherry on top of the icing on top of the custard, the other two picks in the top three head East and out of the Western Conference.
The Bad:
It’s cloudy outside. And not very warm. And I need to make more coffee.
Simulation Rating:
This is the 10, I really don’t think it can get any better than this outcome. Would also like to point out that last Saturday had a strong result. When is the actual lottery? That’s right, a Saturday. So fear not about Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday results of the simulator; they exist merely to make the joy that much sweeter on weekends.
The Picks:
1. Calgary – Matthews
2. Ottawa – Laine
3. Buffalo – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Dubois (that Babcock quote convinced me)
5. Edmonton – Chychrun (Defenseman their target)
6. Vancouver – Sergachev (Vancouver hell bent on a dman as well)
7. Columbus – Tkachuk
Flames Pick:
The Flames add Matthews with the first pick, bolstering their already solid pen of centers and giving Alberta back to back lottery victories after the Oilers took home McDavid last year. The pick creates almost 60 days of anticipation in Calgary, as rabid hockey fans discuss line combinations and for the truly uppity, trade proposals to get Matthews back to his native state of Arizona.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.1
Poll Average 5.0/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
