On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 21st- 9 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
Another tough day with a small silver lining, and that would be both Edmonton and Toronto on the outside looking in. Seeing the Oilers specifically out of any lottery mix takes a lot of the sting away of the Flames falling two spots to 7th overall. Beyond that I guess having Montreal and Ottawa in the mix you have two “less rival” Canadian teams that are in the East and away from the Flames in the West. Reaching.
The Bad:
Vancouver again. I really hope their luck in my simulations is using up luck for the real lottery as they’ve out performed Edmonton in my lottery results, winning far too often. Get it out of the way is the plan. The Flames falling not only one but two spots is unfortunate as it puts them in a position to either take what’s left of that assumed top 7, or go off the board. Luckily there does seem to be some movement in that area creating some uncertainty.
Simulation Rating:
I’ll give it a 4 because of the fact that both Edmonton and Toronto fell out of the mix.
The Picks:
1. Vancouver – Matthews
2. Ottawa – Laine
3. Montreal – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Nylander (brother act just too enticing)
5. Edmonton – Chychrun (Defenseman or bust or is it and bust?)
6. Columbus – Dubois
7. Calgary – Tkachuk
Flames Pick:
Having the Oilers and Leafs out of the top three gets you some unexpected results in the draft with both Nylander and Chychrun going ahead of Dubois and Tkachuk. Calgary ends up with Tkachuk when the Jackets opt for Dubois. The Flames certainly need some edge, so the ex-Jet’s son could work well in Calgary’s top six.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.3
Poll Average 4.7/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.3/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.1/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.8/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.3/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.5/10
