On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 18th – 13 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
Not hard to identify what’s good with this version of the lottery simulation fix, as the good guys come out on top, winning the lottery and their right to choose any player they want in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. How good does that sound? Other great things to like includes the Devils moving up the ranks and the Oilers pushed to the 5th spot and out of the top three. One can dream …
The Bad:
The Canucks, plain and simple. Vancouver wins the second lottery pick and with it their right to draft whoever Calgary doesn’t. The pick would be a big boost to the Canucks rebuild, as they’d surely not pick a defenseman as Benning has been hinting with such a high pick.
Simulation Rating:
I think it’s another way at arriving at a 9. Hard not to be happy with the Flames winning the lottery, but it’s not a perfect 10 with Vancouver selecting right behind them. However it doesn’t take as much as a discount as if Edmonton was in the top three as well. So 9 it is for me.
The Picks:
1. Calgary – Matthews
2. Vancouver – Laine
3. New Jersey- Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Nylander (brothers unite)
5. Edmonton – Chychrun
6. Columbus – Dubois (like him at center)
7. Winnipeg – Tkachuk (former Jet’s son comes home)
Flames Pick:
The Flames are proud to select from the Swiss League, Austin Mathews! Imagine the possibilities heading into training camp with all the centers available to the Flames in their setting their top nine forwards. With Monahan, Bennett, Backlund and now Matthews the Flames truly have a wealth of top line centers to move around the roster. I could see Matthews on the wing to start his career, or a move of Bennett back to left wing where he was comfortable last season. Talk about a jump start to a rebuild, amazing result.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 4.8
Poll Average 5.6/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.3/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.1/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.8/10
