On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 15th – 17 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
You know you’re not getting a lot of lottery luck when you start to see the good in no rival drafting first or second, but I’ll cling to that today. Two US based Eastern Conference teams take the 1st and 2nd spots with the Oilers getting the lesser of two Finns for the third pick. Could be worse right? At least the Flames are in the 6th spot again, only moving down the one spot for the Carolina move up the ranks.
The Bad:
This is less difficult to shovel. Bad is the Oilers winning a lottery spot, any lottery spot. Glad the Canucks are out. Glad the Leafs are out, but the Oilers are in and with that you have a bad result.
Simulation Rating:
I’ll give this a 4 out of 10. The Flames aren’t in the 7 or 8 spot, and none of the team’s rivals are in the first two slots so you take solace in that.
The Picks:
1. Columbus – Matthews (Once again they look like geniuses moving Johansson to get Jones now)
2. Carolina – Laine (a great victory for the non-tanking crowd)
3. Edmonton – Puljujärvi (the next Kurri era)
4. Toronto – Nylander (pass up on Tkachuk to unite the brothers)
5. Vancouver – Chychrun (Benning has suggested a Dman target)
6. Calgary – Tkachuk
7. Winnipeg- Dubois
Flames Pick:
With the Flames in the 6 hole and the brother enticement and a need for a defenseman above them the Flames get a choice between Dubois and Tkachuk when it’s time to make their selection. The team needs some sandpaper to go with skill in their top six so they go with the grittier Tkachuk with their pick. .
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 6.4
Poll Average 3.6/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
