On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 11th – 19 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
The Flames had two teams behind them win lottery spots, but not three so they remain in the top seven – many see the top 7 as a pretty key line over the rest of the top ten with some options. Of the two teams that passed them both are Canadian and somewhat likeable (read no rivalry with the Flames and their fans). Success for Ottawa and Winnipeg certainly doesn’t stick in the craw of the average Calgarian the way an Edmonton, Vancouver or to a lesser extent Toronto win would.
The Bad:
Vancouver right there at the top. The Flames would be faced with a Western Canadian rivalry with McDavid in Edmonton and Matthews in Vancouver for the next ten or so years. Can certainly be managed, but not an ideal outcome by any standard for Flames fans.
Simulation Rating:
I give this a 4 out of 10. The Flames don’t move up, a rival gets the phenom, but the solace is the Leafs and Oilers both getting punched out of the top three. A good result for future tanking clubs to consider in future seasons.
The Picks:
1. Vancouver – Matthews
2. Winnipeg – Laine
3. Ottawa – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Nylander
The brothers united has them take Nylander early.
5. Edmonton – Chychrun
Need defensemen more than forwards
6. Columbus – Tkachuk
7. Calgary – Dubois
Flames Pick:
The Flames pick up powerforward P.L. Dubois after narrowly missing Tkachuk falling to them at seven. Although Dubious doesn’t shoot right, he has a decent chance of making the Flames this fall, but it certainly wouldn’t be the end of the world if he goes back to Cape Breton. A highly competitive winger to add to the Flames top six in the next 12 to 24 months. Great building block.
