July 1st, the third most interesting player transaction day of the season behind the trade deadline and the NHL Entry Draft.
A chance for hockey teams to bolster their squads for free, well without forfeiting assets anyway, as the day truly is always extremely expensive.
Brian Burke once opined that more mistakes are made on that one day every year than every other day combined by NHL executives.
Which is ironic, because on that day in 2015 Burke’s young Padawan (trying to be new Stars Wars movie hip) may have made his biggest miscalculation in his young GM career.
“The Calgary Flames signed goalie Karri Ramo to a one-year contract Wednesday. Financial terms were not disclosed, but Sportsnet reported it to be worth $3.8 million.”
Many of us were surprised as there didn’t seem to be a lot of interest in signing the player leading up to the June 30th deadline, yet there it was. A move that suggested the Flames or at least Brad Treliving liked Ramo more than the other starter, Jonas Hiller. A thought that was backed up in the playoffs when Bob Hartley went to the bench in game 6 against Vancouver, and then in games two through five against Anaheim. Hiller on the bench, Ramo between the pipes.
The looming issue, even back then was the fact that they now had three waiver dangered goaltenders on one way contract heading into camp. Oh it will get sorted out by then, we mused, and we were wrong.
And this signing, in my estimation, took down a season.
Last season many journalists and stats mavens incorrectly suggested the Calgary Flames were carried to the playoffs by their goaltenders. They weren’t. The goaltending was average, ranked 16th in save percentage. They certainly stole some games, but for the most part the Calgary keepers were good enough to keep the team in games, but rarely were they better than their counterparts at the other end. The Flames got by.
Calgary’s culture, their chemistry, their “room”, however was undeniably ranked near the top of the circuit. The team believed in what they were, who they had, and what they had to do.
Forwards backchecked and protected the gap, defenseman rushed the puck knowing they’d be supported by forwards. Defensemen blocked shots, cleared rebounds, and stayed firmly within the system instilled by Hartley.
So why hasn’t that worked this season?
For one, those that expected the Flames to be on the other side of lady luck were vindicated, as the Flames top 5 shooting percentage plummeted to the bottom of the league. But the biggest issue was goals against. At the end of October the Flames three goaltenders all appeared together in the league’s bottom five in terms of save percentage. They were bad. Almost statistically impossibly bad. Really, really bad.
The three tiered goaltender situation to start the season basically undermined the club’s culture. Decimated it actually.
The first brick to dislodge was goaltender confidence. Last year Hiller would play well and get the net for five or so games. Ramo would wait patiently. When Hiller floundered Ramo would get a start, then he’d have the net for a six pack of contests. Hiller would be waiting in the wings. It worked.
This year there was no waiting in the wings patiently, as there was another guy in the dressing room. A bad start could mean not only did you have to wait out the starter having a rough one, you probably had to wait out the third guy also getting a chance before you. If you were even more paranoid you were pensively considering being waived and playing in the AHL should you have a bad start.
The goalies started pressing, then floundering.
The team? They started thinking they had to do more in order to make up for the fact that their goaltenders were getting lit up. Defensemen were out of position attempting to stop any scoring chance. Players were taking chances offensively feeling they had to score 5 in order to win. The patience was gone. The system in tatters. The season lost.
Best example of this of late? Brodie and Giordano up the ice past all Flames and Ducks players looking for a Josh Jooris pass while killing a penalty in a 3-3 tie. Turnover, and game lost.
The Flames now sit 5 games under .500, 22 games into their season. That means they have to be at least 14 games over .500 in the final 60 games, or a .615 winning percentage. The club was .590 last year on the way to 97 points. A .615 mark is a 101 point season, or the likes of the Blackhawks or Capitals last season.
It’s not going to happen.
So what happened? Did Treliving really feel the difference between Ramo and Hiller was so great that this risk was warranted?
My guess is he got caught. He saw a busy goalie market at the draft and felt in terms of asset management he could sign his goaltender, and flip the other for a third round pick at the next entry draft. He was on a Midas roll having moved Glencross for two picks, stolen Hamilton from the Bruins, and it’s summer right? He had lots of time.
It didn’t work and with it the Flames upset that fragile tea cart of team chemistry that was as much responsible for last season’s miracle run as shot blocking and come from behind wins.
So where does this leave the team?
In good shape to be honest. Last year was an aberration in a rebuild that was destined to take three to five years. They’ve drafted and developed well, and have now added some playoff experience for their young key cogs going forward.
The early face plant this season, makes it much easier to start thinking next year especially with contracts like Hudler, Russell, Jones, and the goaltenders expiring at the end of the season. A top draft pick this year to add to a stable that includes Bennett, Monahan, Gaudreau, Hamilton and Brodie will likely look very good in 24 months.
But if you’re not ready to look forward, and you’re still pining for this season, look back to July 1st. Therein lies the day the season ended. We just didn’t know it yet.
