So we’ve established the Flames have been relatively unsuccessful at drafting in the last ten years, at least how it stands today.
There isn’t a whole lot that will change from 2004 to 2006, but the team may gain in the rankings against pick value from 2007 to 2013 as drafted players potentially play more games than their counterparts.
From 2004 to 2010 certainly the team had a somewhat mixed philosophy as they traded down to add picks, but also traded away 2nd round picks most seasons. As a result they had a very low pick value most seasons, and the scouting staff wasn’t able to save them with savant like picks.
In the past few seasons things have changed however.
Starting in 2013 the Flames have used the rebuild to come into the draft with a high value assortment of picks and with it should see more success in the years to come. The first 9 years of the ten we examined had the Flames making only 12 picks in the top 60, 12! That’s eight first round picks, and four second round picks in 9 seasons, and five of the nine came in 2011 and 2012. From 2004-2010 the Flames had only seven choices in the top 60 in 6 years. That’s not a way to build a franchise.
Since those nine entry drafts things have changed. In 2013 they had three first round picks and a second (4), in 2014 they had a high first and two seconds (3), and this year they have a middling first and three seconds (4). That’s 11 top 60 picks in three years, one less than they utilized in the previous nine NHL Entry Drafts.
Clearly things are changing in Calgary, partially due to a rebuild, and partially due to a change in philosophy.
Below are the ten drafts in our study for the Flames ranked by draft pick portfolio, and it will come as no surprise that 2013 was the highest pick value draft in the time period with three selections in the first round. The Monahan pick alone has already garnered the team 156 games played, meaning the OHL product is ranked behind only 4 entire draft classes by himself. Should he continue and get added help from Klimchuk, Poirier and perhaps Kanzig or Rafikov, the 2013 draft class could net the Flames well into the fourth digit in games played.
Similarly it won’t take more than 500 games for Sam Bennett to make the 2014 draft a successful compared to past years but with guys like Hunter Smith, Mason McDonald and Brandon Hickey (I could clearly list the entire draft class at his point) having potential the year could get much better.
Some of the Sutter years were way below NHL average or even 30th place team average in terms of value with three drafts coming in below 0.80.
Moving beyond the time period, the Flames had a draft portfolio value total of 1.52 in 2014 on the strength of the team’s highest ever first round pick (Sam Bennett), and two second round picks, one early.
This year’s draft is strong as well with the additional 2nd and 3rd round picks, as the Flames come in at 1.28 for draft pick portfolio total. Comparing it to the ten year data set, 2014 and 2015 would be ranked only behind 2013 for strength of picks, suggesting the trend is and will continue.
Ranking Picks
With the value of each pick well established it’s interesting to look at all the selections in the past 12 years (ten year study, plus 2014 and this year’s draft) to gain some perspective on what picks were truly let downs, and where this year’s pick fit in the grand scheme of things.
The immediate good news? The Flames have four picks in the next two days that rank in the club’s top 25 picks in terms of values in the last 12 years.
Sam Bennett and Sean Monahan top the list, so the Flames are looking more than safe for not striking out with their two highest value picks. It’s interesting to note that the third pick on the list is for Sven Baertschi, and the return for Baertschi is ranked 22nd on the value chart, a reduction of 19 spots since the 2011 draft. Certainly don’t want to reopen that debate, but the values are right there. Clearly a prospect that hasn’t made it in four years is no longer worth the spot he was taken.
Calgary’s 15th overall selection is the 4th highest pick on the chart followed by what can now easily be called the biggest bust in Kris Chucko in 2004, a 24th overall pick that played 2 games. Its interesting to note that that very same spot, 24 was used to take Mikael Backlund as well, which worked out great for the Flames.
The only other true worry in the top ten is Mark Jankowski, but then his development plan was always scheduled long term and we still have a ways to go to see where his selection is evaluated.
The only player in the top 25 to not even get a sniff was the 25th ranked pick in Joey Leach, who the Flames chose not to sign.
Sixteen of the 25 picks occur or will have occurred in the five years dated 2011-2015, once again a reflection of a rebuilding team, and a team that traded away far too many 2nd round picks in the first few years of the analysis.
The 2015 Draft
I always feel a little foolish suggesting what the Flames should do in an entry draft. I’m not a scout, I don’t watch 1000’s of junior games each year, and my opinions are limited to what I read, and the conversations I see on the site through the months of May and June every year.
In the previous two drafts it was easier to hone in on a view as the Flames were heading for top picks in both drafts involving only a handful of players to dive deeply on in order to get a view.
I was happy in both drafts to see the player I wanted, I think I even jumped in the air last year when Draisaitl was taken by the Oilers leaving Sam Bennett to the Flames.
The suggestion for 2015 is that the first round is forward deep, so despite the Flame’s organization needs of defenders it looks like they will select a forward with the 15th pick overall. I love the best player available motif like all of us, but I do think taking a center for trade value (position to build around) would be my tie breaker whenever possible.
So I’ll group my 2015 first round selection into categories based on chances of actually coming true …
No Point in Mentioning:
McDavid and Eichel
Snowball’s Chance in Hell:
Hanifin, Strome, Marner, Provorov, Zacha
Would Take Some Off the Board Picks:
Crouse, Barzal, Rantanen, Werenski
Most Likely Group to be a Flame:
Meier, Connor, Zboril, Konecny, White, Merkley, Svechnikov
If Treliving Reaches for a Defenseman:
Kylington, Carlo, Chabot, Carlsson, Roy
The glamour of a top five or six pick may be missing in this draft for the Flames compared to the last two entry drafts, but what it does give Calgary fans is our first real look at Brad Treliving as a general manager at the draft. Taking Sam Bennett at 4 doesn’t require a whole lot of hockey acumen, but what will Treliving’s mindset in the 2015 draft be at pick #15?
Does the quick success of Monahan and Bennett mean he takes a flier on a high end talent with warts to add to a solid nucleus? Or does it do the opposite and make him for “safe” to add to the stable without wasting a pick on a guy that may have obstacles that keep him from playing?
Friday at about 6.45pm we should have our answer.
Personally I’ll be hoping against hope that Mathew Barzal falls to the Flames but I’ve seen too many mock drafts with him going 8th or 9th to see him sliding that far.
My gut tells me it’s one of Kyle Connor, Colin White or Nick Merkley, with my pick suggesting Colin White.
Thanks for reading, enjoy the draft Calgarypuck!
