The Flames take to the ice tonight to host the Vancouver Canucks and kick off another season, the 30th in Calgary.
Every season is full of hope and excitement. Each and every team claiming they have improved over the off season and are set to either move into a contender status or finally make those elusive playoffs.
In Calgary, hockey experts are quick to nod their heads in approval when it comes to the change behind the bench, and the star studded nature of the team’s rebuilt defense corps. Heck most are even willing to accept improved defense will lead to much better numbers from Miikka Kiprusoff.
The zit, the handicap … the “catch” always seems to fall to scoring, and the fact that the Flames have no one past Jarome Iginla and Olli Jokinen.
Now forget for a moment how insulting that notion is to Daymond Langkow, as he’s been one of the league’s most unheralded players for years, but is that right? Do the Flames lack upper roster forwards? Are they doomed to 1-0 in shoot out games night in and night out?
I call it the myth of the six, and I’m as guilty as anyone for buying it lock, stock and barrel.
To hockey fans, and clearly hockey media “top six” has come to be defined as six offensively talented hockey players, or stars up front. You have a first line with three star hockey players, two of which are elite. Then a second line with three very good hockey players.
I think a good assumption of this image is six guys that put up 20 or more goals in a season. However the NHL is a heck of a lot more watered down now then it was the last time the Flames suited up in red socks and helmets for a game at the Saddledome. The ’90 Flames had eight forwards hit the 20 mark, and four in and around 30. The NHL just doesn’t play that game anymore.
A player like Curtis Glencross with 13 goals is never considered top six material though Todd Bertuzzi with 15 is because of past accomplishments. It’s complicated.
Last season in the NHL, only five teams truly had a top six, that is six forwards that hit for 20 or more goals. The Flames were one of them. The Bruins had seven. That leaves 24 hockey teams with five or fewer, 18 teams with four or fewer. The Coyotes had one!
The Flames and their six last year included Rene Bourque and David Moss, two players that few had penciled in for 20 heading into the season. The group of six that also included the departed Mike Cammalleri and the late arriving Jokinen scored 165 goals (Cammalleri 39, Iginla 35, Jokinen 29, Langkow 21, Bourque 21, Moss 20). The key is the over under on 165 from Calgary’s top forwards this upcoming season.
Are they due for a fall? Or are there actually more options in play to add to that total?
What most experts miss is that Jokinen IS the replacement for Cammalleri (as Jokinen was only around for 1/5 of the season), and I expect they are within five goals of each other at the end of the season. In fact it might be more prudent to remove Jokinen from that 165 total and put in Matthew Lombardi instead, a reduction of 15 goals to 150. Jarome Iginla had a production dip to 35 goals, that could either be an aberration or a push downward in his career. Daymond Langkow was injured and should put up five to ten more this season. Or in other words I don’t see a leak in the top three at all, and could in fact see a boost of ten or more goals from the group.
The next tier returns both David Moss and Rene Bourque; two players that may go up, may go down or may stay in that 20 goal range. Personally I see a +/- five for both of them and they probably cancel each other out.
So five players into the mix and my guesses are …
Jarome Iginla 38
Olli Jokinen 35
Daymond Langkow 27
Rene Bourque 18
David Moss 22
… or 140 goals through five players in the top six.
To start the season Nigel Dawes is penciled in on Langkow’s left side, a player that scored ten goals last year. Add in his production and they break it even, if he improves they look quite strong. If he falters Curtis Glencross would like nothing more than to move over the 20 goal mark with more ice time and responsibility.
My point? The Flames are very similar offensively to last season.
But just like last September … nobody outside of Calgary seems to see it.
The myth of the six can really cloud judgement.
