Chicago Blackhawks (4) vs. Calgary Flames (5)
Like any playoff season in Calgary, the new season is ushered in with a massive dose of doubt, some fretting, and an out and out prayer to return to the magical days of 2004. Are they due? Are the young Hawks due? Are the Flames too injured to compete? Or do they lack that intestinal fortitude to match the try index of other playoff teams; something we’ve witnessed to some extent in reason seasons as the Flames backed into the playoffs and met dominant first round opponents.
I’ll tell you this much … it’s going to be fun to find out. In 14 other cities there is very little to concern a hockey club but garbage bag day and how different their clubs will look next season.
In Calgary there is hope, how much? Time will tell.
The Nuts and Bolts
You can look at rosters, and I will. Who has the better goaltender? Which team has more scoring depth? Do the Flames and their injured defense core match up well against the upstart Hawks and their young core?
But more important is one simple question.
Do injuries and rested players down the stretch result in fresh legs and an advantage in the playoffs? Or do these returning key components need four, five or six games to find their stride, meaning the Flames are still essentially shorthanded for the first round? Answer those questions and you have your series winner, and the key to perhaps a long Flames playoff march. I’m not a conspiracy theorist by any margin, but the Flames may have sat down the odd body after that Vancouver loss in the hopes that giving up the gate receipt in the first round would result in three more at least in the second round. But enough fodder for Oliver Stone films.
The rosters …
In goal you have two accomplished veterans that have been to the cup final, Khabibulin of course the victor. Both guys can be the difference and they should cancel each other out with Kiprusoff’s age and likely skill advantage countered by the fact that Khabibulin to some extent is in the Flames’ heads.
On the blueline the Regehr less Flames are likely at a disadvantage to the Hawks. The Hawks top four is a stronger group with Campbell, Barker, Keith and Seabrook, but the Flames are stronger in depth and especially if Regehr makes an appearance. A top four of Phaneuf, Leopold, Aucoin and Sarich could counter the Hawks. No Sarich and the Flames are at a disadvantage. Key players for Calgary in this position are Adam Pardy and Dion Phaneuf, but for very different reasons. Adam Pardy needs to show he’s a full time NHL defenseman in a bottom pairing role, which will require less mistakes. Dion Phaneuf needs to be the 1/2 guy that he hasn’t always been this season. As we saw last spring, Campbell needs to show he can play in a physical series. Will be interesting to watch.
Up front the Flames have an answer to the Kane/Toews talent quotient in Jarome Iginla and Olli Jokinen, but with experience. Calgary’s depth is three plus lines deep and has the Hawks at a disadvantage though Chicago is no slouch through three lines themselves. They key to the series from a forward standpoint is Calgary experience and physical play versus Chicago inexperience and speed. Whichever group can dictate the style of play wins. Easy right?
Special teams are huge in this one. Both teams are taking on water badly on the powerplay, the Flames have a much better penalty killing unit than their counterparts. Should Calgary’s kill unit provide the needed support by killing off aggressive penalties when they arise and the Flames gain a huge advantage in that aforementioned tug of war for style of play.
And the Winner is?
I have a good feeling about this one. A smiling Mike Keenan in press conferences teasing local journalists, players seeming at ease heading into a first round matchup? Not what we are used to in Calgary, where the team goes into a hyper intense business like mode the second the calendar flips to April. Maybe a looser feel is all they have ever needed.
The Flames have good depth and star players at all positions. Robyn Regehr and the backchecking ability of the forwards are the only question marks for me.
Flames in 6 (could even be five)
Boston Bruins (1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (8) – Bruins in 5
Washington Capitals (2) vs. NY Rangers (7) – Rangers in 7
NJ Devils (3) vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6) – Devils in 6
Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5) – Flyers in 6
San Jose Sharks (1) vs. Anaheim Ducks (8) – Sharks in 6
Detroit Red Wings (2) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets – Red Wings in 5
Vancouver Canucks (3) vs. St. Louis Blues (6) – Blues in 7
