A season should never hang on one result in February, but that heart stopping come from behind spectacle against the Coyotes the other night has really demonstrated the difference between success and failure in today’s NHL.
A loss, which looked more than likely 50 minutes in, would have put the Flames in 9th spot, on the outside looking in and in a battle to make the post season.
The win, instead puts them in that 5/6th range in projection, and right in the middle between teams looking to contend and teams scrambling to make the playoffs. They look good to see the post season, but they certainly don’t look good enough to make some noise once they arrive.
More importantly at least in appearance, that win – at least for the time being – moved the Flames into the top ten teams in the league when it comes to win percentage. I’ll be the first admit that there is no magic elixir that accompanies a top ten team, but you have to draw that contending line somewhere, and for this moment the Flames are in and a myriad of teams are out by a whisker.
Which brings us to the question; who should be buyers and who should be sellers with the deadline less than three weeks away?
Ask any fan of any city in the mix and you will hear a resounding scream of the term BUYER, but recent history has proven that exclamation to be more dangerous to the immediate future of an NHL franchise.
The quick turnaround in building hockey teams that has been seen with the younger free agency age, and an iron clad salary cap suggests that you should only “go for it” when you really think you have a chance, or when a GM honestly believes he’s one piece away from a long playoff run.
Otherwise you’re better off sitting out the bidding war, or becoming a seller yourself.
A quick look at the NHL standings shows only five teams that are clearly out of it and chances are getting admittance from those five teams would even be a stretch. The Kings, Oilers and Hawks in the West, and the Bolts and Leafs in the East have too many points and too many teams to leap and should be sellers at the deadline.
With 25 looking to browse and five looking to open store fronts you get the idea; a massive bidding war could ensue with teams paying too much for assets that likely won’t make a difference anyway.
Last spring teams faced the same situation and most came away with a quick playoff exit and a cupboard lessened in young assets. Darryl Sutter in Calgary rolled the dice early and brought in Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau, a move that gave some size to the forward lines and a clear top two defender to play with Robyn Regehr. The move itself made sense, but the situation didn’t. The Flames were a streaky up and down team that couldn’t win on the road. They were in tough to make the playoffs and giving no indication that they were a move away from casting aside the Wings and going for another magical jaunt through the Spring.
In hindsight, Chuck Kobasew might look pretty good on the team’s second line, and Andrew Ference was certainly a fan favourite. Neither player were consistent nor part of the core, but some assets were yielded with very little success or gain from the deal itself.
The Thrashers did a similar thing in going after Keith Tkachuk only to lose quickly in the first round and see Tkachuk go back to St. Louis. Crazy for an up and coming team that wasn’t ready to go for the brass ring.
Don’t even get me started on the Maple Leafs hunting down Yanic Perreault.
Conversely, the Sabres with a playoff bound roster decided to maximize their asset worth to some degree, but dumping their backup goaltender Martin Biron to the Flyers for a 2nd round pick. The stopper was heading to free agency so they gained a great pick, but risked not having a sound backup for their playoff drive. In the end their starter Miller didn’t get hurt so the franchise moves a step ahead despite losing other keys over the summer.
In many circles the theory still holds; “make the playoffs and anything can happen”, and this is still true to some extent. However the anything clause seems to apply to at best one mid grade team a spring, leaving nine others picking up assets for a run that never happens.
The smart GM in this new era will go the other way.
They will dump assets even if they are in a playoff spot because they know they won’t be able to wipe away all the warts and zits through a couple of moves. The old adage you can put lipstick on a pig but in the end … still a pig.
Putting Some Numbers Behind It
Essentially general managers should look at it this way; are we a top ten team? A bottom ten team? Or a middle of the road ten team?
By that token the following teams have the green light to load up though the further down the list you are the less aggressive said “load” should be.
Red Wings
Senators
Canadiens
Flyers
Sharks
Stars
Wild
Devils
Penguins
Flames
These teams have the right to call themselves contenders, and can make the case for a boost in roster skill because it may end up in that elusive dream season.
But how do you sort out the rest of the pack?
Using a 90 point playoff birth estimate, one can apply each team’s current win percentage against the win percentage they will need in their remaining games in order to make that 90 point barrier. From there we can calculate what kind of a surge the lower teams need, or what type of blip a good team can manage and still make the playoffs.
For simplicity sake any team that needs to improve more than 20% in the final third of the season is kidding themselves. Teams in this group include the teams we discussed earlier.
Kings 86%
Lightning 61%
Leafs 56%
Oilers 42%
Blackhawks 33%
However, additional teams would be better served in recognizing their fate and using the market conditions to better their franchise’s short to medium term outlook.
Thrashers 31%
Hurricanes 31%
Panthers 30%
Islanders 29%
Capitals 23%
Right there we’ve improved the seller to buyer mix from five to one to a 2/3 to 1/3 split with much more common sense.
However, I wouldn’t stop there.
There are four other teams that will need to improve their almost 60 game pace by close to 10% in order to just make the playoffs. And that’s just getting in. As we’ve stated, making the playoffs is a nice check mark on the season, but it’s hardly a guarantee that your club will go any further than another half dozen games. These four teams should all be sellers as well.
Jackets 18%
Blues 10%
Sabres 10%
Rangers 8%
They get wise quick and you have 14 sellers to offset 16 buyers and a great trade deadline for the TSN crew to dig their teeth into.
The key will be each general manager’s pride and sense of job security. To look like you are writing off a season with your team in the cusp of a playoff spot could be career suicide on the surface, but also a great chance to turn a middling team into a powerhouse by gaining assets and shedding salaries, and repositioning oneself for the ensuing July.
Look for the teams that get honest quick to have the best chance to be in that elusive top ten club next year, and not stuck where they seem to be every season – in that middle zone that leaves them neither good nor bad.
For Darryl Sutter and the rest of his brethren the clock is ticking.
Are you a buyer or if you squint and look really hard at that mirror do you see the reality of the situation and take advantage of a market that could prove favorable?
It’s gut check time.
